Top Performer Identification Syndrome (TPIS)

Just coined it ? ??… you’ll not find it on Google

When many advisers, distributors, sales staff, front office staff in institutions, investors etc. talk about the top performing schemes

This is the reality??

I tried to check the top 5 schemes under each category of equity mutual funds for the periods – 10 / 5 / 3 / 2 / 1 / Since Inception, years respectively

The reality….

Not more than 1 or 2 schemes (at best) featured consistently across all the above tenors within their categories (# of schemes ranged from 6 to 60 within a category)

Infact, in many the categories…the top 5 performing schemes changed completely when I changed the tenor

And we still try to treasure hunt for the BEST performing scheme of the future ?

Trust me….

There is NO WAY to tell TODAY, the best or the top 3 or 5 schemes of the future (whatever is the tenor)

This includes the fund managers themselves predicted the outcomes (they’ll never and shouldn’t)

It’s an absolute futile exercise trying to discover the future toppers, breaking our heads

So, How do we mitigate this?

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