Benjamin Graham’s statement on predictions – “The last time I made any market predictions was in the year 1914, when my firm judged me qualified to write their daily market letter based on the fact that I had one month’s experience. Since then I have given up making predictions.”
Well, many market experts have made it possible for us to believe that, it is possible to predict a future outcome with a reasonable ‘certainty’.
I can only pity these experts.
With all the today’s ‘known’ to us, can we predict tomorrow’s ‘unknown’?
Is it really possible to predict future outcomes with reasonable probability and consistency?
I doubt.
How many ever variables, facts, figures, information, data is available today for these experts to draw a future conclusion, the ‘future unknown’ still remains quite elusive.
Track these experts on what was said in the past, track them on what is said today and, track them on what will be said tomorrow & some-time in the future.
The reality is out in the open. They fail miserably on predicting the future, majority of the times.
Yes, they might be right some-day on something they utter, but by when & in what way?
None knows, including the predictor himself / herself.
Prediction is a game of Probability and Chance.
Predictors fail miserably on the probability and, chance is not under their control.
I can quote innumerable facts on how horrible the past predictions from Market Gurus, Analysts, Fund Managers, Advisors, Distributors, Agents etc. have gone awfully wrong many times in their lives.
But…
Do they learn from it – No.
Do they stop doing it – No
Do people stop to believe them – No
Does media and other propaganda machines ignore them – No
Some regular statements from expert predictors which are never to be believed –
We Expected This To Happen
We Were Always Positioned For This
Look, I Said So
See, I Did Say That
Hey, I Predicted This Event
Oh, I Saw This Coming Through 100%
Stop believing in predictions and start to believe in doing what is right for yourself.
Leave the rest to the unknown force, to take care of the rest.