? Well, it’s not a complicated chart
Let me just break it up
_Absolute & CAGR returns for a 6 year holding period…if one invested at the end of each year and held it for the next 6 years_
Why did I choose a 6 year period? ??….we’ve just gone through an anniversary of 6 year (itch?)….oops, maybe ?, maybe not ?
Bottomline….
_*Outliers*_ – less than 5% CAGR & more than 30% CAGR on a 6 year term – probability is low
Of the 4 instances giving a 30% + CAGR….3 have come in the ’90s decade – _*so, let’s forget about those kinds of returns on a 6 year basis (at an index level)*_
5 of the 6 times that delivers less than 5% CAGR came in the last 2 decades…again an outlier because 3 of those instances came during the 2000-2003 period
The best part…
5 – 10% CAGR for about 14.71% (ok kinds)
_*about 56.06% historical probability that one ended with between 10% to 30% CAGR*_
That’s quite a nice way to end with, for holding 6 years plus on the equity index ???…the sweet spot of returns
Bottomline, _*if one quits the board game in the middle, there’s nothing left to win for*_
_*stay to the end, stay the course*_